why i wasn’t worried about the election
this guy’s statistical predictions based on simulation and mathematical models. for several weeks before the elction, Obama’s win percentage was over 95%. by election night, it was over 99%.
In an election season of unlikely outcomes, Mr. Silver, 30, is perhaps the most unlikely media star to emerge. A baseball statistician who began analyzing political polls only last year, he introduced his site, FiveThirtyEight.com, in March, where he used his own formula to predict federal and state results and run Election Day possibilities based on a host of factors.
[From This Math Whiz Called It for Obama Months Ago - NYTimes.com]
